Papers

Quantum Future – Chris Burden AePS

May 2017

Moving on in the world of condition monitoring with a proactive prognostic science capability, will create a new demand that a quantum science condition monitoring capability can adequately support.

If you review the physical frequency spectrum you will realise that mankind operates across almost the total bandwidth from DC to 800 THz to the top end of the physical light spectrum, about 390 to 700 nm, in terms of wave length which corresponds to a frequency bandwidth in the vicinity of 430–770 THz.

However only DC to 30KHz (with respect to normal human life experience to the top scaling of vibration monitoring and all other sensor types in between) are the main sources of signal media created, monitored, interpreted, analysed and recorded. This is usually as a consequence of sensor types, digitisation of the signatures and system/product monitoring rationales.

The one major exception is your eye sight! This operates in the visual light spectrum 430–770 THz, and between this frequency and 30 kHz exists an oasis of opportunity for signature examination commensurate with system/product operational output. Thermal imaging is an example of a lower frequency monitoring capability, but for system/product operation it is not a definitive tool used in a real-time prognostic manner.

So I looked for a sensor capability that was in some way capable of demonstrating my rationale that a more ‘up the frequency spectrum’ would offer more understanding of product/system operational functionability.

I discovered the world of Acoustic Emission, Lamb waves, Raleigh Waves, elastic stress waves, basically something I (my body) could sense that needed capture so that I could make presentation to others of the instance, define understanding from enabled analysis and consequently start to build a new culture of system/product operational prognostics.

The science of acoustics points at ‘sound waves’ , however the sense I use is not airborne sound, it is physical stress waves that pass through all structures at various frequencies and so I consequently I renamed the technology as a Medium Frequency Energy Transfer (MFET).

Elastic stress waves travel through system/product structures and demonstrate many states of the structure, both passive when not operational and operational through the many states that an operational system/product endures.

The MFET sensor technology which is piezo crystal based has the ability to capture the plethora of stress waves travelling throughout the static and operational system/product. However the complexities of the stress waves encompass the total holistic view of the operational product/system posing a potential problem of distinguishing ‘change’ features and their origins. However the collection of data samples from the ‘new state’ of operation forward in time as the system/product operates clearly demonstrates with fidelity ‘changes’ in the collected/monitored profile of elastic stress wave emissions. As knowledge of the significance of the change features mature the technology of the monitoring system ‘learns’ the significance of the change events and maps the learnt state to a new feature or attaches the feature to a known feature determined prior.

As the system knowledge builds and the features map to prior knowledge so the probability routes to a maturing failure mode start to manifest.

In the meantime other rudimentary monitoring systems like vibration demonstrate no change events and maintain the green light status. So where does this status quo leave the system/product in its operational life.

Well to the ignorant, it is a statement of low concern, keep going and no wisdom generated. However to the fortuitous product/system owner operator it is a clear warning of change and based on prior knowledge of the features maturing, witness to probability routes of failure modes manifesting. This valuable knowledge triggers an alert for preparation that can be programmed, serviceability invoked, components acquired and supplied, repair targeted with respect to resource and location, operations achieved with minimal disruption, a true product/system support by the hour.

However the data is far more valuable in the context of product evolution and the operational data used to underwrite system/product improvement when fed back to the design knowledge. This type of system/product monitoring also asserts a strong case for a more robust prognostic operation which could lead to a safer system/product meriting a reduce through life cost in the shape of serviceability and insurance risk.

Quantum Future – Chris Burden AePS

April 2017

In the world of condition monitoring the use of prognostic science is to better define the ‘state’ of an operational system at any time in its functional life span and its ability to deliver the functionality of the design. However, and more importantly, prognostic science is required to understand the functionability (Mirce Science) of the operational system. Inside the functionability metric of an operational system when investigated with a true ‘holistic prognostic science condition monitoring philosophy’ exists the’ true’ definition of the ‘state’ of the product/system.

This ‘truth’ state of the operational system demands fidelity of assessment the like of which is not operational today in any systems. There are product/systems that claim to have full condition monitoring but they are a base requirement to satisfy regulation, concept proofs, maintenance drivers, insurance assurance, product customer integrity appeasements and market place delivery for sales and business financial reward.

The world of prognostic science for condition monitoring is also considered by most manufacturers to be an ‘add on extra’ to their sold product/system. As long as the system/product operates with rudimentary condition monitoring that the customer, sometimes in ignorance, has bought into, then all is considered to be well. But as the world moves to more complex systems/products especially bordering on quantum physical attributes of operation, this business attitude is totally unacceptable.

This is where the ‘holistic product science’ world rears its head and shouts do you really understand the functionability of this operational system/product or are you living in negligence that the rudimentary systems of monitor will catch and warn of system/product impending failure, hopefully before a disaster occurs.

The idea of the all-encompassing prognostic science condition monitoring has been a personal requirement in my engineering career since 1984, when I witnessed an ability to define crack growth in a turbo jet engine LP compressor blade during operation but my concern was not believed because the prognostic evidence was not understood.

From this day in 1984, forth, my requirement for a ‘prognostic science condition monitoring and holistic attribute inclusion’ became essential for future operational system /product functionability statements of witness.

From this datum point evolved the ‘frequency denominator’ for all prognostic witness events to ensure a ‘quantum science’ medium for operational product/system prognosis.

This start point does not negate all old technology ideas like accelerometers and velocity sensor vibration but demands a better deeper analysis of the data to extract more concise detail.

However it must be realised that, in the case of vibration monitoring there is only so much detail that can be extracted from a Newtonian based science. Why wait for the system/product to demonstrate serious decay features, like an out of balance, almost at the failure point when with a Quantum based science the system/product decay modes can be identified far earlier.

The secrets of the ‘prognostic science’ based condition monitoring idea are not hidden or obscure, but visible and available if we choose to use them.

I do use them and I have found them to work and be as expressive as to amaze, but they do not function as a green light, red light system yet. In time as the science grows it will supersede current condition monitoring systems to meet the demands of new systems/products of mankind’s desires.

It is these prognostic science condition monitoring systems that will drive and demand the futuristic ‘cloud’ platform for analysis and lay the future base for all functional system/product operational integrity analysis from which to build confidences of functionability assessment.